（阅读理解)Exercise is one of the few factors with a positive role in long-term mainten

The sentence "The genetic genie is out of the bottle. " in Para. 2 probably means

A．the genetic genie, the key technology in producing genetically modified foods, is out in the market

B．the genetic technology has come out of laboratories into markets

C．genetically modified foods are available everywhere

D．technology with which to produce genetically modified foods may have powers unpredictable or uncontrollable by man

World Engines (WE) is one of the largest producers of aircraft and ship engines in the world. It has assets in excess of $600bn. It is currently considering improvements to its marine engine production facilities. These improvements include the introduction of specialist hardware and software engine testing technology. Two companies have been shortlisted for supplying this technology.

Amethyst is a well-established company whose product provides sophisticated testing facilities and costs $7m. The software that supports the product is written in a conventional programming language. The solution is widely used, but it is relatively inflexible and it has an out-of-date user interface. Amethyst has been trading profitably for 20 years and currently has an annual turnover of $960m.

Topaz is a relatively new company (formed three years ago) whose product is more expensive ($8m) but it offers significant advantages in high volume performance and stress testing. It has a modular software design that allows it to be easily maintained and upgraded. It is written in a relatively new powerful programming language and it also has an attractive and contemporary user interface. Topaz currently has a turnover of $24m per year. Some WE executives are concerned about purchasing from such a young, relatively small company, although externally commissioned credit reports show that Topaz is a profitable, liquid and lightly geared company.

On a recent evaluation visit to Amethyst, WE’s complete evaluation team of five people, including the financial specialist, were killed when their aircraft crashed on its approach to landing. It was a small, 12 seat commuter aircraft that was flying the WE team on a short 100 km flight from the international airport to a small rural airport close to Amethyst’s base. It later emerged that small commuter airlines and aircraft were subject to less stringent safety procedures than larger aircraft used by established airlines.

Later that year, one of the divisional directors of WE was given responsibility for picking up and running the testing technology evaluation project. He has found the following table (Figure 1) produced by the financial specialist in the evaluation team who was killed in the air crash. The divisional director recalls that these returns were based on ‘tangible benefits resulting from the two options. The returns reflect the characteristics of the two products. Topaz produces better returns if demand for testing is high, but is less effective in low demand circumstances. This is a reflection of the fact that the two solutions differ slightly in terms of their functional scope and power’.

The divisional director also recalls a workshop convened to consider future market demand.

‘Demand in the marine industry is currently affected by global economic uncertainty and it is increasingly difficult to predict demand. I remember that we were also asked to estimate demand for our marine products for the next six years. We eventually came up with the following figures, although it was relatively hard to get everyone to agree and debate at the workshop became a little heated’.

– High demand for six years: probability p = 0·4

– Low demand for six years: probability p = 0·4

– High demand for three years, followed by low demand for three years: probability p = 0·2

These figures are confirmed by a document also recovered from the air crash site. ‘As I recall’, said the divisional director, ‘the financial specialist intended to develop a decision tree to help us evaluate the Amethyst and Topaz alternatives. However, there is no evidence that he ever constructed it, which is a pity because we could have taken the procurement decision on the basis of that decision tree’.

Required:

(a) Develop a decision tree from the information given in the scenario and discuss its implications and shortcomings. Ignore the time value of money in your analysis. (9 marks)

(b) The divisional director suggests that the procurement decision could have been taken on the evidence of the decision tree. Discuss what other factors (not considered by the decision tree analysis) should also be taken into consideration when deciding which option to select. (6 marks)

(c) WE executives are concerned about the risk of Topaz, as a relatively new company, going out of business. They have also expressed concern about the loss of the evaluation team in a fatal accident and they believe that this should lead to a review of the risks associated with employee travel.

Discuss how EACH of the above risks (supplier business failure and employee travel) might be avoided or mitigated. (10 marks)

Conservation or Wasted Effort?

The black robin(旅鸫)is one of the world's rarest birds. It is a small, wild bird, and it lives only on the island of Little Mangere, off the coast of New ZealanD．In 1967 there were about fifty black robins there; in 1977 there were fewer than ten.___________(46)

Energetic steps are being taken to preserve the black robin. ___________(47) The idea is to buy another island nearby as a special home, a "reserve", for threatened wild life, including black robins. The organizers say .that Little Mangere should then be restocked (重新准备) with the robin's fooD．Thousands of the required plants are at present being cultivated in New Zealand.

Is all this concern a waste of human effort? ___________(48) Are we losing our sense of what is reasonable and what is unreasonable?

In the earth's long, long past hundreds of kinds of creatures have evolved, risen to a degree of success and died out. In the long, long future there will be many new and different forms of life. Those creatures that adapt themselves successfully to what the earth offers will survive for a long time. ___________ (49) This is nature's proven method of operation.

The rule of selection---'the survival of the fittest"--is the one by which human beings have themselves arrived on the scene. We, being one of the most adaptable creatures the earth has yet produced, may last longer than most.___________ (50) You may take it as another rule that when, at last, human beings show signs of dying out, no other creature will extend a paw (爪) to postpone our departure. On the contrary, we will be hurried out.

Life seems to have grown too tough for black robins. I leave you to judge whether we should try to do anything about it.

A．Some creatures, certain small animals,insects and birds, will almost certainly outlast (比……长久) man, for they seem even more adaptable.

B．Those that fail to meet the challenges will disappear early.

C．Detailed studies are going on, and a public appeal for money has been made.

D．Both represent orders in the classification of life.

E． Is it any business of ours whether the black robin survives or dies out?

F． These are the only black robins left in the world.

第 46 题 请选择（46）处的最佳答案．

When will the woman leave the school?

A．At the beginning of the tenn.

B．At the end of the tenn.

C．At the middle of the term.