Germany is the largest economy in Europe and the _______largest economy in the world, behind the the United States and Japan.

New figures from France, Germany and Italy -- the three biggest economies in the 12-country Eurozone- suggest the continent's economic woes may have been exaggerated. In France, evidence emerged that consumer spending remained solid in July and August, rising 1.4% and 0.6% respectively. Forecasters had generally expected the July figure to show a 0.1% slippage, with August unchanged. But the figures were flattered slightly by a down grade to the June figure, to 0.7% from 1.5%.

With manufacturing in the doldrums across Europe and the U. S. , consumer spending has been increasingly seen as the best hope of stopping the global economic slowdown from turning into a recession. The French government said the news proved that the economy was holding up to the strain of the slowdown.

Meanwhile in Germany, new regional price figures went someway towards calming fears about inflation in Europe's largest economy -- a key reason for the European Central Bank's reluctance to cut interest rates 15 states said consumer prices were broadly stable, with inflation falling year on year. The information backed economists' expectations that inflation for the country as a whole is set to fall back to a yearly rate of 2.1%, compared to a yearly rate of 2.6% in August, closing in on the Euro-wide target of 2%. The drop is partly due to last year's spike in oil prices dropping out of the year-on-year calculation.

The icing on the cake was news that Italy's job market has remained buoyant. The country's July unemployment rate dropped to 9.4% from 9.6% the month before, its lowest level in more than eight years. And a business confidence survey from quasi-governmental research group ISAE told of a general pick-up in demand in the six weeks to early September. But the news was tempered by an announcement by Alitalia, the country's biggest airline, that it will have to get rid of 2,500 staff to cope with the expected contraction as well as selling 12 aeroplanes. And industrial group Confindustria warned that the attacks on U. S. targets meant growth will be about 1.9% this year, well short of the government's 2.4% target. And it said the budget deficit will probably be about 1.5%, nearly twice the 0.8% Italy's government has promised its European Union partners.

We know from the first paragraph that ______.

A．new figures from the three European countries show the prediction of forecasters is exactly right

B．European economy gets on better than forecasters have predicted

C．all of the forecasters expect the fully figure to show a reduction

D．in three European countries the consumer spending continues to rise

听力原文： A new United Nations report is predicting economic growth in Latin America this year will be slower than anticipated. The U. N, Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean released a survey Tuesday projecting three percent growth in the region. In February, the commission forecast a growth rate of three-point-eight per-cent. The regional economy grew by four percent last year.

Economists with the U.N. committee, based in Santiago, Chile, say the slowing U. S. economy is the primary factor in Latin America's economic slowdown.

The committee says a decline in direct foreign investment also played a part in the revised economic forecast. The U. N. agency is forecasting a good year for Brazil--which has Latin America's largest economy. The commission predicts the Brazilian economy Will expand by four percent this year. The Dominican Republic and Chile also get high marks. The U. N. office says Colombian, Ecuador and Venezuela will continue a steady recovery from economic instability.

The economy in the Latin American and Caribbean region grew by ________ last year.

A．3 percent

B．3.8 percent

C．5 percent

D．4 percent L

听力原文： A new United Nations report is predicting economic growth in Latin America this year will be slower than anticipated. The U. N, Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean released a survey Tuesday projecting three percent growth in the region. In February, the com-mission forecast a growth rate of three-point-eight per-cent. The regional economy grew by four percent last year.

Economists with the U.N. committee, based in Santiago, Chile, say the slowing U. S. economy is the primary factor in Latin America’s economic slowdown.

The committee says a decline in direct foreign investment also played a part in the revised economic forecast. The U. N. agency is forecasting a good year for Brazil--which has Latin America’s largest economy. The commission predicts the Brazilian economy Will expand by four percent this year. The Dominican Republic and Chile also get high marks. The U. N. office says Colombian, Ecuador and Venezuela will continue a steady recovery from economic instability.

________ people died in the powerful storm.

A．55

B．65

C．60

D．45

听力原文： A new United Nations report is predicting economic growth in Latin America this year will be slower than anticipated. The U. N, Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean released a survey Tuesday projecting three percent growth in the region. In February, the com-mission forecast a growth rate of three-point-eight per-cent. The regional economy grew by four percent last year.

Economists with the U.N. committee, based in Santiago, Chile, say the slowing U. S. economy is the primary factor in Latin America’s economic slowdown.

The committee says a decline in direct foreign investment also played a part in the revised economic forecast. The U. N. agency is forecasting a good year for Brazil--which has Latin America’s largest economy. The commission predicts the Brazilian economy Will expand by four percent this year. The Dominican Republic and Chile also get high marks. The U. N. office says Colombian, Ecuador and Venezuela will continue a steady recovery from economic instability.

The economy in the Latin American and Caribbean region grew by ________ last year.

A．3 percent

B．3.8 percent

C．5 percent

D．4 percent L

听力原文： A new United Nations report is predicting economic growth in Latin America this year will be slower than anticipated. The U. N. Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean released a survey Tuesday projecting three percent growth in the region. In February, the commission forecast a growth rate of three-point-eight percent. The regional economy grew by four percent last year.

Economists with the U. N. committee, based in Santiago, Chile, say the slowing U. S. economy is the primary factor in Latin America's economic slowdown.

The committee says a decline in direct foreign investment also played a part in the revised economic forecast. The U. N. agency is forecasting a good year for Brazil -- which has Latin America’s largest economy. The commission predicts the Brazilian economy will expand by four percent this year. The Dominican Republic and Chile also get high marks. The U. N. office says Colombian, Ecuador and Venezuela will continue a steady recovery from economic instability.

The economy in the Latin American and Caribbean region grew by ______ last year.

A．3 percent

B．8 percent

C．5 percent

D．4 percent

By 2030, people over 65 in Germany, the world's third-largest economy, will account for almost half the adult population, compared with one-fifth now. And unless the country's birth rate recovers from its present low of 1.3 per woman, over the same period its population of under 35 will shrink about twice as fast as the older population will grow. The net result will be that the total population, now 82 m, will decline to 70 m - 73 m. The number of people of working age will fall by a full quarter, from 40 m today to 30 m.

The German demographics (人口统计) are far from exceptional. In Japan, the world's second-largest economy, the population will peak in 2005, at around 125 m. By 2050, according to the more pessimistic government forecasts, the population will have shrunk to around 95 m. Long before that, around 2030, the share of the over-65's in the adult population will have grown to about half. And the birth rate in Japan, as in Germany, is down to 1.3 per woman. The figures are pretty much the same for most other developed countries, and for a good many emerging ones, especially China.

Life expectancy — and with it the number of older people — has been going up steadily for 300 years. But the decline in the number of young people is something new, The only developed country that has so far avoided this fate is America. But even there the birth rate is well below replacement level, and the proportion of older people in the adult population will rise steeply in the next 30 years.

All this means that winning the support of older people will become a political imperative (需要) in every developed country. Pensions have already become a regular election issue. There is also a growing debate about the desirability of immigration to maintain the population and workforce. Together these two issues are transforming the political landscape in every developed country.

By 2030 at the latest, the age at which full retirement benefits start will have risen to the mid-70's in all developed countries, and benefits for healthy pensioners will be substantially lower than they are today. Indeed, fixed retirement ages for people in reasonable physical and mental condition may have been abolished to prevent the pensions burden on the working population from becoming unbearable. Already young and middle-aged people at work suspect that there will not be enough pension money to go round when they themselves reach traditional retirement age. But politicians everywhere continue to pretend that they can save the current pensions system.

In Germany，______ .

A．birth rate has gone up to 1.3 per woman

B．people over 65 now constitutes about half the adult population

C．its population of under-35s is twice as large as that of over-65s

D．by 2030 its working force may have shrunk by 25%

听力原文： As expected, the U.S. Federal Reserve has cut interest rates for the fifth time this year to try to avoid a recession in the world's largest economy. The Fed cut rates by a half percent, to four percent, its lowest level in seven years. In a statement, the Central Bank said further cuts are likely as the economy remains weak. Many economists think monetary authorities will continue to cut rates in the months ahead to revive economic growth, which has slowed considerably. Figures released Monday showed industrial production fell in April for the seventh consecutive month-the longest stretch signs the economy is starting to re-bound since the recession year of 1982. Other reports show the economy lost more jobs in April than at any time in the past decade. Still, other market-watchers say the Central Bank may hold off on further rate cuts amid signs the economy is starting to rebound. Reports show consumer confidence and retail sales are rising. Consumer spending makes up two-thirds of U. S. economic growth. The stock market is expected to rebound further in the days ahead if the Federal Open Market Committee keeps cutting interest rates, as companies and consumers benefit from lower borrowing costs.

The US Federal Reserve has cut rates by half percent, to _______ percent, its lowest in seven years.

A．five

B．four

C．seven

D．six

By 2030,people over 65 in Germany, the world's third-largest economy, will account for almost half the adult population, compared with one-fifth now. And unless the country's birth rate recovers from its present low of 1.3 per woman, over the same period its population of under 35 will shrink about twice as fast as the older population will grow. The net result will be that the total population, now 82m, will decline to 70m-73m. The number of people of working age will fall by a full quarter, from 40m today to 30m.

The German demographics (人口统计) are far from exceptional. In Japan, the world's second-largest economy, the population will peak in 2005, at around 125m. By 2050, according to the more pessimistic government forecasts, the population will have shrunk to around 95m. Long before that, around 2030, the share of the over-65's in the adult population will have grown to about half. And the birth rate in Japan, as in Germany, is down to 1.3 per woman. The figures are pretty much the same for most other developed countries, and for a good many emerging ones, especially China.

Life expectancy-and with it the number of older people--has been going up steadily for 300 years. But the decline in the number of young people is something new. The only developed country that has so far avoided this fate is America. But even there the birth rate is well below replacement level, and the proportion of older people in the adult population will rise steeply in the next 30 years.

All this means that winning the support of older people will become a political imperative (需要)in every developed country. Pensions have already become a regular election issue. There is also a growing debate about the desirability of immigration to maintain the population and workforce. Together these two issues are transforming the political landscape in every developed country.

By 2030 at the latest, the age at which full retirement benefits start will have risen to the mid-70's in all developed countries, and benefits for healthy pensioners will be substantially lower than they are today. Indeed, fixed retirement ages for people in reasonable physical and mental condition may have been abolished to prevent the pensions burden on the working population from becoming unbearable. Already young and middle-aged people at work suspect that there will not be enough pension money to go round when they themselves reach traditional retirement age. But politicians everywhere continue to pretend that they can save the current pensions system.

In Germany, ______.

A．birth rate has gone up to 1.3 per woman

B．people over 65 now constitutes about half the adult population

C．its population of under-35s is twice as large as that of over-65s

D．by 2030 its working force may have shrunk by 25%

If American investors have learned any lesson in the last 25 years, it is to buy shares on the dips. The slide in 2000—2002 may have been longer and deeper than they were used to but normal service was eventually resumed, driving the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a record high on October 1st.

Among American financial commentators, it is almost universally accepted that shares always rise over the long run. And one ought to expect shares (which are risky) to deliver a higher return than risk free assets such as government bonds.

Nevertheless, investors ought also to remember the world's second largest economy, Japan. Its most popular stock-market average, the Nikkei 225, peaked at 38,915 on the last trading day of the 1980s; this week, nearly 18 years later, it is still only around 17,000, less than half its peak. Buying on the dips did not work either.

Professionals of the London Business School examined the record of 16 stock markets which were in continuous operation over the course of the 20th century. In itself, this selection showed survivorship bias by excluding the likes of Russia and China. The academies found that only three other countries could match the American record of having no 20-year periods with negative real returns.

Other investors were far less lucky. Japanese, French, German and Spanish investors all suffered instances where they had to wait 50—60 years to earn a positive real return. It was no good following the famous advice to "put the shares in a drawer and forget about them"; the furniture would not have lasted that long.

Besides survivorship bias, there is another problem with the belief that stock markets must always go up. Investors will keep buying until prices reach stratospheric(稳定的) levels. That clearly happened in Japan in the late 1980s, and after seven years, it is still not much more than half its peak level.

A significant proportion of the return from equities in the second half of the 20th century came from a re-rating of shares; investors were willing to pay a higher multiple for profits. But re-rating cannot continue forever.

If investors want a simple parallel with share prices, they need only mm to the American housing market. Back in 2005 an economic adviser to the president said", we've never had a decline in housing prices on a nationwide basis. What I think is more likely is that house prices will slow, maybe stabilize".

Lots of people took the same view and were willing to borrow (and lend) on a vast scale on the grounds that higher house prices would always bail them out. They are now counting their losses. Investors in equities should beware of over-committing themselves on the basis of a similar belief Just ask the Japanese.

The word "dips" (Line 1, Paragraph 1) means that ______.

A．a place where the surface of something reaches its climax.

B．a place where the surface of something goes up suddenly and rapidly.

C．a place where the surface of something goes down suddenly then goes up again.

D．a place where the surface of something reaches its lowest point then goes up.